MSIP for BWR piping systems

Servicio de Gestión del Riesgo

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 14:12:38 +0000

Cobertura, en finanzas, (en inglés hedging o hedge) se llama al conjunto de operaciones dirigidas a anular o reducir el riesgo de un activo o pasivo financiero en posesión de una empresa o de un particular. Los fondos creados con este fin se denominan fondos de cobertura o hedge funds.

Las operaciones de cobertura consisten en la adquisición o venta de un activo financiero que se encuentre correlacionado con el elemento sobre el que quiere establecerse la cobertura. Dicha adquisición o venta puede ser de acciones, índices, tipos de interés, opciones, futuros, etc.

GESTIÓN DEL RIESGO. La gestión del riesgo ligado a la evolución de los precios de los cereales y oleaginosas se ha convertido en un objetivo imprescindible para toda empresa que opere en el sector de las materias primas agrícolas. La globalización de los mercados genera una mayor volatilidad de los precios puesto que su evolución depende de multitud de factores estrechamente relacionados y difíciles de controlar. Danarinvest ofrece soluciones de previsión y gestión del riesgo para todas aquellas empresas que operen con materias primas agrícolas y que pretendan desarrollar un negocio basado en unos cimientos sólidos y rentables.

GESTIÓN DE LA INFORMACIÓN. El éxito de cualquier negocio depende mucho de una buena gestión de la información relacionada con el sector en el que se opera. La información diaria relacionada con el sector de las materias primas agrícolas es muy amplia y se difunde en varios idiomas, por lo que es bastante difícil de analizar filtrando las noticias más importantes. En Danarinvest analizamos diariamente todas las noticias relativas al sector de los cereales, oleaginosas y sectores afines como la industria de biocarburantes. Danarinvest le ayudará a gestionar toda aquella información que pueda influir en su negocio.

CIPRATECH software structure

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 00:23:13 +0000

Cipratech offers the possibility to analyze the global probabilistic risk of a capital investment in Small and Medium Enterprises (SME's) and New Technology Based Firms (NTBF's), by considering four economical modules at the same time (see following diagram).

Marketing analysis
Financial analysis
Technical analysis
Company analysis

In addition the program allows to make a marketing analysis of a specific sector, or to perform a financial analysis of an investment, or to analyze a technology, product or company as individual stand-alone evaluations, or as a combination of only two or three of the modules.

CIPRATECH software

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 00:17:24 +0000

As mentioned above, Ciptarech offers the possibility to analyze the global probabilistic risk of capital investment by considering the four economical modules at the same time.

In addition, the program allows to make marketing analysis of a specific sector, or to perform a financial analysis of an investment, or to analyze a technology or product as individual stand-alone evaluations, or as a combination of only two or three of the modules.

Other Commercialy available programmes

We have performed a survey of the software presently offered on the market and made a comparison between the Cipratech model and the other major commercial programs and software packages available, that to some extent perform functions similar to those of Cipratech.

There are many other products offered, especially in the USA market, that are specifically designed for investing on bonds, equities, futures, etc. traded in the Stock Exchange.These programs are not comparable to Cipratech and cannot be used for analyzing the risk of investment or credit in SME’s and NTBF’s since they do not cover all the risk aspects which need to be evaluated. The majority of the other programs presently commercialized give a good coverage of the financial risk, some permit to analyze the market or industry sector, but are not addressing the technology and product evaluation of risk.

Conclusions

This preliminary market survey of risk assessment computerized tools presently commercialized has confirmed the belief of the Cipratech Consortium partners that competitors’ products do not cover all the risk aspects to be evaluated when financing a SME or NTBF.

In particular the market and product/technology evaluations are not systematically covered and in the few cases where it is included, the evaluation is performed by comparison against statistical or historical sector data of performance and best practice.

None of the products analyzed uses systematic risk assessment models based on event or fault tree methodology.

Why CIPRATECH ?

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 00:09:23 +0000

Financial institutions, banks or capital risk entities which are considering the possibility of investing money in a SME which desires to innovate or expand to produce and market new products, or in the case of an investment in new technology based firms (NTBF), there is a need to perform a specific risk analysis.

Also, whenever there is a need to grant a credit to a completely unknown company dedicated to a new technology development it is always very difficult to evaluate all the aspects of the risk involved, with the result that the conditions for the credit are often penalized by heavy contingency factors.

The main problem we face, is to evaluate the investment risk or credit risk in those companies where the activity is not well-known, and where the future economical growth of the company depends on so many unfamiliar factors for which there are no historical data directly comparable.

In these cases, for a good assessment of capital investment risk the investor will generally need to analyze many different economical factors related to the specific investment, such as:

Product feasibility from technical point of view
Possibility of good market penetration of the company
Quality of the management organization of the company
Sector competitiveness
Financial suitability
Opportunity cost of the investment
Technology evaluation
Etc.

All these areas can be summarized into four big generic economical analysis modules:

Marketing analysis
Financial analysis
Technical analysis
Company analysis

At present, many different commercial software packages can be found in the market for the analysis of some of the above mentioned factors and modules.

However there is still no software available at present that can integrate the four analysis modules into one unique and complete capital investment risk assessment, that could answer to all, or almost all, questions of the investor, and give him a complete probabilistic risk assessment of the potential capital investment or loan.

The Cipratech program is intended to respond to this need by integrating the four analysis modules into one unique probabilistic risk assessment software using an event tree analysis methodology.

Cipratech will manage the four modules at the same time. Therefore the analysis of all the economical relevant factors will be considered for a global and unique capital investment (or loan) risk assessment.

The advantage offered to the end-user by Cipratech is that each of the four analysis modules can also be used separately to perform a specific financial, market sector or product/technology analysis.

The CIPRATECH origins

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 00:00:55 +0000

CIPRATECH grew out of the need to devote sufficient capital investment to the creation and development of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and New Technology Based Firms (NTBF), which are known to be the driving forces of economical and occupational growth in the E.U.

Within the European Union, public and private financial resources are available, however their utilization to bring a new technology or product from R&D to the production and commercialization stage suffers from capital risk evaluation difficulties. Methodologies exist and are currently used by capital risk companies for the assessment of both the viability and the risk associated with the commercial exploitation of opportunities in new technologies or products. Nevertheless, these methodologies are still very uncertain which makes it often very difficult to quantify the risk involved in the development, production and commercialization of new high-tech products .

This is due to the fact that the investing organizations are reluctant to take unquantified risks and usually prefer to direct available funds towards safer and more traditional portfolios (bonds and other low-risk fixed return investments). Changing this trend is of paramount importance in order to push traditional investments towards more productive use. Ideally, once a realistic quantification of the risk is achieved, it should be possible to attract venture capitals as well as pensions and mutual funds to invest part of their portfolio to finance SMEs, NTBFs and innovative products. This can only be achieved with the improvement and refinement of present methodologies and procedures used for capital investment risk evaluation.

An area where Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been developed, validated and intensively used, is the nuclear energy industry. Its successful application in this industry has motivated the transfer of PRA methodology to other industrial sectors and now, with the CIPRATECH project, to the financial and capital investment sector.

Cipratech

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 23:52:54 +0000

The objective of CIPRATECH (Capital Investment Probabilistic Risk Assessment TECHnology) is the transfer of risk evaluation technologies developed for the Nuclear Engineering and industrial sector to the capital investment sector.

The project is co-financed by the European Commission Directorate General XIII in the frame of the 4th Framework Innovation Program.

The technology transfer opportunity is offered by existing software technologies developed and copyrighted by EC-Joint Research Centre (JRC) and by the U.K. Defence Evaluation and Research Agency (DERA) in the engineering/energy sector, and inspired by the interest shown in these technologies by a number of financial partners who are now participating in the Cipratech Consortium.

The aim is to make available better software tools for investors and traders to evaluate Value At Risk (VAR) for venture capital initiatives and for mutual and pension funds management.

The main advantage of Cipratech is the capability to evaluate the global probabilistic risk of a capital investment by considering four different risk aspects at the same time.

Marketing analysis
Financial analysis
Technical analysis
Company analysis

In addition the program allows to make a marketing analysis of a specific sector, or to perform a financial analysis of an investment, or to analyze a technology or product as individual stand-alone evaluations, or as a combination of only two or three of the modules.

CIPRATECH has been developed by an European Consortium composed by six partners:

JRC: Joint Research Centre is the research center of the European Commission.
DERA: Defence Evaluation and Research Agency is the largest European research organization which has wide experience in the application of advanced computational techniques in the government and defense field.
LT: L.T. Business Consultants.
DBK: is a Spanish market and sectorial analysis organization.
TALDE: is the oldest and one of the most experienced capital risk investment companies in Spain.
ICCREA: is a financial Holding formed by approx.600 Italian small banks, with 2,800 local branches serving the SME sector.

MSIP Table 1

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 20:42:45 +0000

Table 1 - Use of mechanical stress improvement process to ensure safe life of nuclear plants
UTILITY	PLANT	YEAR	PIPE & FITTINGS	NOZZLES & SEs	TOTAL	NOTES
CECo	Dresden 3	1986	50	2	52
CECo	LaSalle 2	1987	25	29	54	3
CECo	Quad Cities 1	1987	36	2	38
CP&L	Brunswick 2	1988	0	15	15	1-3
CECo	Quad Cities 2	1988	43	4	47
Nuclenor	Sta.María de Garoña	1988	24	0	24
OKG Aktiebolag	Oskarshamn 2	1988	1	0	1	1
CP&L	Brunswick 1	1988	0	10	10	3
CECo	LaSalle 1	1988	15	15	30
CECo	LaSalle 2	1988	8	0	8
CECo	Dresden 2	1988	82	22	104
PECo	Limerick 2	1989	2	16	18
Northeast	Millstone 1	1989	0	22	22	3
Detroit Edison	Fermi 2	1989	6	21	27	3
CECo	Quad Cities 1	1989	28	12	40
CP&L	Brunswick 2	1989/90	16	20	36	2
CECo	Quad Cities 2	1990	30	14	44	2
Teollisuuden Voima OY	TVO	1990	5	0	5
Niagara Mohawk	Nine Mile Pt 2	1990	0	1	1	3
Taiwan Power	Kuosheng 2	1990	2	0	2	1
CP&L	Brunswick 1	1990/91	10	24	34	2
Northeast	Millstone 1	1991	34	9	43	3
Iberdrola	Cofrentes	1991	0	42	42	3
Boston Edison	Pilgrim 1	1991	16	0	16	2
PECo	Peach Bottom 3	1991	10	0	10
PECo	Limerick 1	1992	0	7	7
Cleveland Elect.	Perry 1	1992	0	27	27	1-3
TVA	Browns Ferry 3	1992	71	29	100	2
GPU	Oyster Creek	1992	70	0	70	2
Georgia Power	Hacht 1	1993	18	11	29	3
TVA	Browns Ferry 2	1993	12	0	12	2
PP&L	Susquehanna 1	1993	8	6	14
PECo	Limerick 1	1994	4	14	18
Georgia Power	Hatch 2	1994	0	18	18
PP&L	Susquehanna 2	1994	7	5	12
GSU	River Bend	1994	0	28	28	3
WPPSS	WNP-2	1994	6	38	44	3
GPU	Oyster Creek	1994	39	16	55
PP&L	Susquehanna 1	1995	5	15	20
Consumers Pr.	Palisades	1995	0	3	3	4-3
PP&L	Susquehanna 2	1995	5	16	21
Northeast Util.	Millstone 1	1995	11	0	11
Northeast Util.	Millstone 1	1996	72	0	72
PSE&G	Hope Creek	1999	14	6	20
CECo	Quad Cities 1	2000	5	0	5
GPU	Oyster Creek	2000	17	0	17
TOTALS			807	519	1,326

Notes:

1) Some weldments with preexisting cracks

2) Weldments for replacement piping made of SCC immune materials

3) Treated weldments include Inconel 600 Safe-Ends

4) Recent application for PWR Inconel 600 Safe-Ends

Conclusions about MSIP

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 23:56:39 +0000

The analyses and qualification tests performed by the AEAT-ENSA-LT Consortium have verified the applicability and effectiveness of MSIP to eliminate residual weld stresses present in PWR RVH CRDM Inconel 600 penetrations, thus providing protection against stress corrosion cracking.

For CRDM penetrations, MSIP represents a cost-effective means to extend the life of operating RV heads and additional protection for new or replacement Reactor Vessel Heads.

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MSIP for RV CRDM penetrations

davide@luccardi.com (Super User) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 23:40:37 +0000

CRDM nozzles are usually shrunk fit in reactor head penetrations and then welded to the dome on the inner side by partial penetration J-welds. Since all the nozzles are vertical, the outer radial locations require welding of the nozzle to the dome at angles of up to 47º. Welding produces a complex pattern of residual stresses where the tensile stresses are enhanced by significant ovalization of the nozzle extending inside the dome. The pattern of stress becomes more complex after a hydrotest which introduces local plastic yielding at the hole boundary and weld discontinuity.

The mechanical means of applying loads must be adapted to the complex geometry of the CRDM penetration. Such loads can be imposed using a simple device with a central rod extending through the penetration having a head at one end and a hydraulic cylinder on the other (Figure 4). The imposed axial compressive stresses interact with the as-welded circumferential tensile stresses to enhance plasticity. The resulting plastic flow redistributes the residual stresses to remove tension from the critical weldment region. After removing the imposed axial loads, both the axial and the circumferential residual stresses are reduced to an almost stress-free condition.

Two and three-dimensional inelastic finite element stress analyses were performed on the central and outermost CRDM penetration weldments of typical RPV head design to verify the concept.

Considering the CRDM penetration pattern in the Reactor Vessel Head (RVH), a three dimensional pie-shaped segment of the RVH dome is modeled. This model extends from the center of the head down to the flange connection. One side of the model bisects the center of the outermost CRDM. The area in the vicinity of this CRDM weldment to the RVH dome is modeled with a fine mesh to accurately determine the resulting stresses. Such a shaped model allows symmetry boundary conditions to be accurately applied to the model. The RVH flange is included in the model to account for the effect of the flange stiffness on the deformation and resulting stresses on the analyzed CRDM (Figure 5).

This model was used in comprehensive elastic-plastic analysis to demonstrate the benefits of the MSIP for reducing residual stresses in the weldment to mitigate stress corrosion cracking.

While analyses show that as-welded tensile stresses are reduced by axial contraction of the nozzle, our results show even better improvement of stress would be achieved if the penetrations are contracted when the RPV head is subject to internal pressure, or when a difference in average temperature exists between the RPV head shell and the Inconel penetration. This average temperature difference should be in the order of 85º to 140º C. A combination of heating and cooling would be applied locally to the RPV head penetration weldment being treated with MSIP. The average temperature difference would eliminate the shrink fit and, along with MSIP, improve stresses on the inner surface of the penetration. The cooling process should take a few minutes to achieve the desired cooldown and would be followed by an axial squeeze.

Initial hoop stresses within a range of 275-345N/mm2 tension are reduced, such that after returning to operation, the tensile stresses remain low. Significant improvement is obtained at all locations around the nozzle, below and above the weld. Application of the process eliminates both the hoop and axial 'as-welded' stresses above the weld as well as in the weld region and beneath it.

Qualification tests have been run at Equipos Nucleares, S.A (ENSA) factory in Santander (Spain) to verify the removal of the 'as-welded' residual stresses. Full scale mock-ups have been designed and fabricated using the same procedures as those used in an actual RV head. Residual stress measurements were made before and after application of MSIP. Geometry and locations of stress measurements are shown in Figure 6, Figure 7 and Figure 8 show the level and distribution of stresses before and after MSIP application. The attached photograph (Figure 9) shows the stress measuring equipment designed by ENSA for measuring residual stresses inside the penetration.

The following table summarizes the results:

The results show that the tensile stresses are either removed or reduced to such low levels as to be below the threshold of corrosion cracking.

It should be noted that the Inconel 600 used in the mock-up was conservatively chosen with a high yield strength of 518 N/mm2. This is considerably higher than the typical yield strength values for Inconel 600 which are in the order of 300 N/mm2. Even with such high yield strength material, the process was able to eliminate or reduce the tensile 'as-welded' residual stresses to begin levels along the inner surface of the penetration. For the normal yield strength values, it is expected that the tensile stresses will be completely removed.